Peninsular Lumber Company


Will Lumber Prices Go Down in 2023?

What can we expect from lumber prices in 2023?

In recent months, lumber prices have been on the rise, and now nearly every commodity market predicts a continuation of this trend. If you are thinking about the future of lumber prices, it is essential to know what has caused the recent rise in price and how this will affect the industry as a whole to give you an idea of what is likely to happen in 2023.

Will Lumber Prices Go Down in 2023?

For many people who are asking, “Will lumber prices go down in 2023?”, the answer is quite simple; the prices of lumber are expected to be unstable until mid-2023. After that, the total supply of lumber is expected to catch up with the current demand. This will probably result in a slight dip in prices.

There are several reasons why the price has been on the rise recently. The current trend is a combination of the following:

Conservationists Limitations

The lumber industry has been fighting legal battles with conservationists for several years. Carbon dioxide, one of the main gases responsible for global warming, is a byproduct of the logging process. To preserve its environmental reputation, the Obama administration started requiring companies to pay a fee for each ton of CO2 they emitted.

The Obama administration won in court, but President Trump repealed this legislation soon after taking office. As a result, the lumber industry was able to continue cutting down trees, thereby creating more and more CO2 gas.


The second factor that has led to the current increase in prices is that there are some limitations on how much lumber can be logged annually. This limitation is caused by several factors, including environmental concerns and concern for species of animals living within forests.

More than one million acres of forest have been preserved due to such restrictions. While this may seem reasonable for those who don’t want to see lumber companies take down trees at an unsustainable rate, it is terrible news for those who have invested in trees and other logging supplies over the years.

Lack of labor in the sawmills

The United States has been a leader in the lumber industry for quite some time. However, the industry has been on a downward trend over recent decades for several reasons. These reasons include environmental issues, restrictions on logging, and a lack of funding for forest conservation.

As a result, there is now a severe labor shortage in sawmills and lumber yards across the country. There has been an increase in job openings in the lumber industry recently, but many people can’t apply.

Weak Market Conditions

Because the lumber market has been overheated, buyers have become interested in buying wood. On top of that, the demand for building materials is also high because over 700 million people are living in slums around the world. Unfortunately, for importers and exporters who rely on lumber as a profitable product, there aren’t enough mills across the globe to supply enough wood to keep up with demand.

Lack of Sapling Growth

The current rise in price is primarily related to the fact that a limited number of saplings are available for logging. As a result, the cost of creating new trees has also increased. This means that if saplings become more available in the next few years, the price will go down. However, this is unlikely to happen because it takes a lot of time and effort to create more trees on an industrial level.

Stumpage Costs

People who ask, “Will lumber prices go down in 2023?” need to understand what stumpage costs are. Stumpage costs are a tree’s total cost from its origin to the mill. Over the past few years, industrial sawmills have had to pay higher and higher amounts to keep up with the demand for lumber.

As a result, it is likely that stumpage costs will not go down significantly any time soon. This has increased lumber prices.

Overheated Dollar Value

The overall currency value of the dollar is a significant concern for those who want to export wood out of the United States. Over the past year, the dollar’s value has risen significantly against most other currencies. This means that exporters will have to pay more for each unit of wood they produce, which will likely only lead to higher lumber prices in 2023.

Lack of Investment in Saplings

Currently, there are very few saplings available for logging purposes. While the current price of these trees is high, prices will likely go down once the market cools off and more trees become available for cutting. This will only happen once a significant investment is made in plant-based logging. However, this isn’t likely to happen any time soon because no major lumber companies have shown interest in making such an investment over the past few decades.

While many people continue to ask, “Will lumber prices go down in 2023?” they need to understand that the price of lumber has been rising steadily over recent years due to several factors. They include conservationist actions and legislation and decreased forest conservation funding in North America and Europe. While the price of lumber will likely go down in the next few years, it will not go back to its previous levels.

The reason is that the price is now high enough to curb demand. In other words, the price of lumber may not go up or down much in the future, but it will stay at current levels for quite some time. It is recommended that consumers who want to buy lumber make sure that the product is high quality and not just cheaper than it used to be.

That way, they will quickly get the best deal possible. Besides, the government needs to continue making meaningful investments in preserving as many trees and forests as possible. Otherwise, the lumber industry will keep decreasing, and at least threatened species will disappear from the face of the earth.

Peninsular Lumber is the place to go for all of your lumber supplies and materials

No matter the changes in the price of lumber, Peninsular Lumber is here to provide the lumber and building materials you need. Peninsular Lumber has served the Tampa Bay area for over 75 years!

We will provide and assist you in selecting the best lumber for any of your jobs, whether it is for custom home building, decking, door installation, or DIY projects.

Come visit our lumber company in Tampa Bay today!